Wednesday, 31 August 2016

ASX 200 key support is 5400, below that would open door for big decline

This post makes the case that 5400 is key support for the ASX 200. A decisive break of that level would open the door for a big, swift, relentless decline. Charts in this post include all sessions trade.

First a monthly chart to illustrate the big picture wave count. Wave 2 could grind higher without invalidating the count. A move below key support 5400 would make such a grind higher less likely and raise the odds that a large degree wave 3 down as illustrated below had begun. Why 5400? Subsequent charts illustrate.

Daily chart identifies 5400 as key support as it has acted as support or resistance several times in the recent past.

4 hour chart shows that a break of 5400 would coincide with a move lower from the trend channel and raise the odds that the small degree wave 3 shown below had begun. Until such a break is seen, the decline from the peak could be a corrective A-B-C rather than the 1-2-3 illustrated.