Saturday, 18 June 2016

Blog post: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 breaking down, other indexes globally following?

Stock indexes globally are breaking lower, lead by weakness in the US market. In this post I show daily charts for cash market futures or equivalent for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Nikkei, ASX 200, Hang Seng, and EURO STOXX 50 indexes.

First the S&P 500. It has broken lower from the recent up trend channel, and looks to have completed a bearish false upside break from the almost year old blue channel. The Elliott Wave count is my best guess of the big picture structure, and implies that after coming wave C concludes, the market will rally to new all time high. Of course there are other big picture counts that also make sense, some more bullish, some more bearish, that's the way with EW. In any case, I think the near term trend has turned down. I'll change my view on the big picture if I see reason to.

NASDAQ 100 closed the week below trend line support. Beginning a 3rd wave lower? I think so. If so, it'll be brutal. If it's not brutal, we'll know the count is wrong and something else is happening.

Nikkei testing support.

Hang Seng testing support.

EURO STOXX 50 breaking down.

ASX/SPI 200 testing support.

Blog post: EUR/USD testing daily chart trend channel support, 30 year trend line nearby

EUR/USD is at an interesting juncture, I think.

Daily chart first. From the December low EUR/USD chopped upwards in a corrective fashion to the May high. The corrective nature of that rally implies that the December low will break at some point. The market could chop higher still before that happens. Right now, nearby trend channel support is key.

Monthly chart shows that any break of the December low would break a 30 year old up trend channel. A break lower from the daily chart channel could be the first step toward that break. One thing leads to another.