Monday, 13 June 2016

Blog post: ASX/SPI 200 has peaked, now just beginning big down trend

The ASX was closed Monday for the Queen's Birthday holiday. Charts in this post include after hours trade to the current time, with the market now trading some 70 points below Friday afternoon's cash market close of 5312.

4 hour chart Elliott Wave count shows that the upwards correction from the February low counted as complete at the May high, and that the trend has turned down.

Daily chart shows the market turning down from a 12 month old band of resistance.

Weekly line chart Elliott Wave count suggests the market is beginning a big third wave lower, toward 4000 and likely even lower.

Monthly chart shows how the weekly chart wave count fits in to the larger degree count, which counts best to me as a zigzag correction from the 2007 peak.

Blog post: S&P 500 peaking, turning lower, next move toward 1800?

Toward the end of May I titled a post "S&P 500 beginning new up trend? Or range bound and peaking?". In my view the evidence presented by the market since that time favours the latter option, as we've seen a brief foray higher quickly reversed..

Daily chart shows my favoured Elliott Wave count for the S&P cash futures. The coming wave C could be much larger than illustrated. Of course, there are more bullish alternate counts. A return by the market to the prior trading channel will further favour the bearish case.

Weekly chart next. The bearish MACDH divergence favours that the market is peaking.