Thursday, 14 April 2016

ASX 200 forming a bearish Head and Shoulders continuation pattern?

Not a high confidence scenario at this time, but I thought it was worth a mention. Market needs to turn down from pretty near current levels, or it'll be scratched. The larger trend is down, so I will keep looking short unless/until the market breaks upwards from the downwards biased choppy range, bounded by blue lines in the chart.

Hang Seng rallies from year old trend channel

Nifty rallies from year old down trend channel

The Elliott Wave labels below suggest that a significant low is in for the Nifty and it is beginning a rally to above the 2015 high, but there are other possibilities. So far the rally does not appear impulsive (in EW terms), so I am not yet convinced that the larger trend has turned up.

NASDAQ 100 daily chart testing dual trend line resistance

If the NASDAQ is not leading the US stock market higher (as now, with the S&P 500 and Dow both closer to record highs), it is often preparing to lead it lower. Chart includes all sessions trade.

ASX 200 daily chart again testing down trend line drawn from 2015 high

Includes all sessions trade. Currently looks like the ASX 200 will open Thursday around 40 points higher than Wednesday's close.