Tuesday, 12 April 2016

Gold, Silver consolidating at trend channel resistance, ahead of breaks higher

Weekly charts of Gold and Silver show both testing resistance at big trend channel trend lines.



Daily chart of Silver next, showing the most likely Elliott Wave counts. Gold has similar options. In short, the wave count tells that the trend is up and we should expect further rally, but likely after further consolidation.

AUD/USD 7.x year cycle + LT trend line support + strong EUR/USD favour further rally (edited)

Monthly chart shows the AUD/USD is being lifted higher by a 7.x year cycle, and also is now above long term trend line support. Another factor favouring ongoing AUD/USD strength is general USD weakness. See charts I posted earlier for Gold and Silver, and more importantly EUR/USD. That said, for confidence in the bullish view, the AUD/USD must have monthly closes above the up trend line, so there is not much wriggle room from a crystal ball gazing point of view, or much risk from a trade idea point of view. Let's see.

Edit: Added second chart. Better illustrates why I consider the angle of the above up trend line to be important:

EUR/USD rallying from test of 30+ year old up trend line, so favour USD weakness