Tuesday, 9 February 2016

ASX 200 will float on the rising tide of global stocks in coming months

Today I have posted charts for the S&P 500, Nikkei, Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, and Nifty. I favour that the corrections from the 2015 peaks for all those markets are complete or nearly so.

The ASX 200 action over the past year is tougher to label than those other markets, and unlike many of them, does not fit in to a neat corrective trend channel. It stands to reason that if the bullish case is correct for global stocks, then the ASX 200 will float on that rising tide. The following is the best I can do with labeling the waves on the ASX 200 daily chart. All charts include all sessions trade.

The arithmetic scale monthly chart below supports the bullish case, so long as the market can rally enough to close above the line by month's end.

Next is the log scale monthly chart and trend channel that I favoured last year. Who knows, maybe my current (and only recent) bullishness will prove misguided, and this chart will prove a better guide to what lies ahead. While markets globally look to hold bullish potential, I will favour the bullish case for the ASX 200, and favour the arithmetic scale monthly over the log. But it pays to be aware of both, and it's fascinating to me that they tell completely different tales right now.

S&P 500 testing cluster of support, move to above 2015 high likely

Weekly chart shows the S&P testing support at two trend lines, both look important to me.

Daily chart shows another test of trend line support, and also illustrates the corrective nature of the S&P's decline from the 2015. The correction looks complete or nearly so. By definition, a completed correction will be followed by a rally to new highs, in the S&P's case, new record highs.

Nikkei nearing end of 8 month correction

The Nikkei has completed it's correction from the 2015 or nearly so. So too has the USD/JPY.

Hang Seng nearing end of 10 month correction

Weekly chart

Daily chart

EURO STOXX 50 near lower line of 10 month corrective trend channel

Slight tweak of the channel lines compared to last nights post. The above touch of the wave B peak is more ideal.

Nifty nearing end of 11 month correction

Gold rallying, mid channel resistance is around 1230-1250

USD/JPY decline halts at lower line of 7 month old corrective trend channel