Saturday, 30 January 2016

Stock markets globally have likely completed the correction from the 2015 highs

Stock markets globally have likely completed the correction from the 2015 highs.

This post argues the bullish case by presenting all sessions charts for the past year's trade of six major globally traded stock indexes, namely the US S&P 500, the Japanese Nikkei, the European EURO STOXX 50, the Australian ASX 200, the Hong Kong Hang Seng, and the Indian Nifty.

In Elliott Wave terms, each of those indexes shows a completed three wave corrective move, or complex variation of a completed three wave corrective move. Many of those corrections bottomed ideally at trend channel support, boosting confidence in the bullish case.

S&P 500 shows ideal corrective trend channel

Nikkei shows ideal corrective trend channel

EURO STOXX 50 shows ideal corrective trend channel

ASX 200 shows an all sessions double bottom. It should lead the way higher as its correction bottomed before the other illustrated markets, in August, and it is beginning a 3rd wave higher.

Hang Seng. I am not as confident that this one has bottomed as I am with the other illustrated markets. Wish there was clear trend line support for this one, though the three wave move is clear.

Nifty shows ideal corrective trend channel

The implication of these completed corrections is that stock markets have bottomed and are now in the early stages of rallying to beyond the 2015 highs. Clear;y the message of this post is a 180 degree turn from my bearish opinion of only a few weeks ago, an opinion held and publicised for many months prior, but I've gotta call it as I see it. Markets presented us with key new information in mid January, particularly the S&P 500 and ASX 200 when they failed to hold below the August lows. So, the chart pattern changed, my reading of the chart patterns changed, and so did my opinion.