Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Gold rallies through key trend line resistance

Daily chart shows Gold rallying through key trend line resistance.

Weekly chart still shows Gold at the crossroads, ie. could go either way. The odds are tilting towards the bullish scenario, which would be boosted by rallies through the December high and then 1100.

AUD/USD near dual trend line support on daily chart , 7 year cycle points up

Daily chart shows the AUD/USD near dual trend line support. Yesterday's post illustrated a 7 year cycle that suggested this market should rally from its September 2015 low. In which case, perhaps the dual support will hold? Let's see.

S&P 500 is January 2016 analogous to June 2008?

Weekly chart price action measured against the 40 and 18 week moving averages suggests that the current market position could be analogous to June 2008. 

First chart is a weekly of the S&P 500 10 months either side of the 2007 peak. Note that June 2008 saw a decline through the 18 week moving average, which directly preceded the strongest period of decline in 2008.

Second chart shows the S&P 500 chart 10 months either side of the 2015 peak. The analogy to June 2008 is that the market is currently slicing lower through the 18 week moving average some months after the 18 and 40 week averages had crossed bearishly. Will the analogy continue with a strong decline in coming months? I suspect so, based as much on clear bearish patterns and wave counts in Asian and European markets, as anything I see on the S&P 500 itself. I think that the US markets and S&P will not be able to swim against the global tide. Let's see.