Saturday, 10 September 2016

S&P 500 was Friday's 2.5% drop a kick-off for a big decline? Some levels to watch #SPX

Was Friday's 2.5% drop by the S&P 500 a kick-off for a big decline?

Of course, nobody knows the answer. The market will let us know definitively in coming days and weeks, and has already pegged out some key levels by which we can make judgement in the coming period. Right now I think that a decline through 2090 would boost the bearish case, and a rally through 2168 would invalidate it.

Daily chart first. The market has declined to below the May 2015 peak. Has it returned to the trading range that captured trade for most of the period since early 2015? Thus opening the door for a move toward the range lows around 1850? Perhaps. A move below trend line support currently just above 2090 would raise the odds for that outcome. Pending such a move, the market could be re-testing the zone at the top of the range and preparing for another rally to record highs.

4 hour chart next, shows the possible near term Elliott Wave counts. The projected action is indicative of possible form, not time or price. So far from the peak the market has either traced out a corrective A-B-C or the first 3 waves of an impulsive 1-2-3-4-5. If from here the market forms waves 4 and 5, that would indicate the larger trend has turned down. A wave 4 rally cannot overlap the wave 1 low at 2168, so that level is currently key. Any rally above 2168 would raise the odds that an A-B-C correction had completed, notwithstanding the potential for more complex corrections to form. Keep it simple. For now, while the market trades below 2168 I will give the benefit of the doubt to the bearish case and to the chance that the larger degree trend has turned down. Let's see.