Sunday, 11 September 2016

#ASX/SPI 200 near test of key trend channel support #XJO

Daily chart. The market closed last week's after hours trade a mere few points from key trend channel support. While the market remains below the top of the nearby resistance zone, I will favour a break lower from the illustrated up trend channel. The rally from the February low is clearly choppy and (upwardly) corrective, not impulsive as the beginning of a new larger degree up trend should be, so I favour that the rally will be fully retraced ie. we see a decline below the Feb low.

4 hour chart zooms in to my reading of the near term waves, and possible form of future action. Just for fun. Trying to trade all the wiggles in a fast market is a fools game. When things get fast it is best to zoom out to longer term charts, certainly once you are positioned and ahead. I'll repeat that I am bearish against the top of the resistance zone on daily chart, which is the top of wave iv on this chart. 5440ish. 

Monthly chart. A break lower from the daily chart up trend channel will raise the odds for this scenario to play out. We're close!

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