Sunday, 26 June 2016

Blog post: S&P 500 trading above support, trending up, look to buy on fear? #SPX

So, there was a Brexit inspired panic last week. When I say panic, that is one huge understatement. I don't remember witnessing such an emotional outpouring of bewilderment and fear. Doesn't seem to have bothered the US stock market too much. It's still trading above support, and trending up. Maybe I am being too blase about Brexit, but taking the charts at face value, which I think is the best approach, I believe it is best to look for long entries if the market can hold above support and mount a rally. If the market doesn't rally or hold support, I will change my tune.

Some charts now, to illustrate my perspective.

Daily chart of the S&P 500 cash market shows it closed last week trading above support.



Weekly chart of the S&P 500 cash market shows that it continues to trend up, trading above the rising 40 week moving average.



Longer term weekly chart shows that since the 2009 low (and actually far in to the past beyond that, not shown) forays lower to or toward a rising 40 week moving average have often been good buying opportunities.



Daily chart of the S&P 500 cash futures including after hours trade to the end of last week illustrates the wave count that I am working. I am looking for wave 2 to bottom in coming days, maybe weeks, and then for a strong wave 3 rally to begin, to record highs. Readers who have followed me recently will know that I preferred a bearish wave count until Friday, when I changed my stance and published a post explaining why.



Daily chart of the Dow cash futures shows it closed last week testing support at the lower line of a corrective appearing trend channel. So perhaps the US market will bottom sooner rather than later.



Daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 cash futures shows it closed last week near a test of support at the lower line of a corrective appearing trend channel.



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