Wednesday, 1 June 2016

Blog post: ASX/SPI 200 upwards correction from Feb low counts as complete, turning lower

As I tweeted earlier today when the market was some 50 points higher, the upwards correction from the February low counts as complete, and the next trend should be down, to well beyond that Feb low. 4 hour chart illustrates the Elliott Wave count for the upwards correction.



Daily chart shows that the apparent turn lower has taken the market down beneath a 12 month old band of resistance.



Weekly line chart EW count suggests the market is beginning a third wave lower, toward 4000 and likely even lower.



Monthly chart shows how the weekly chart wave count fits in to the larger degree count, which counts best to me as a zigzag correction from the 2007 peak.


4 comments:

  1. Yes ... you are going to get this one correct.

    But ............
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    Not the American market ... refer the wager!
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Actually, you need to revise your outlook similarly.
    .
    .
    .
    .

    Just trying to help
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    American market Elliot Wave now decidedly to the downside ..

    .
    .
    .
    .
    In a BIG way ...



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the comment.

      Agree at least in the medium term ie. next several weeks. I took profits on my S&P 500 longs last week and am now short.

      I like to "trade the range until it breaks"... I was happily long the S&P up to resistance, but now expect a move lower.

      How much lower? We'll see. If my ASX 200 bearish idea is right, then the S&P 500 is likely headed a lot lower too. But for me the jury is out beyond the next few weeks. I will keep an open mind.

      My trading timeframe is pretty short term, so I change my positioning a lot more frequently than I post charts. In fact the blog posts are as much anything else an attempt to remove the "predictive" part of my ego from my trading altogether..... it has an outlet through the blog.

      Best to trade based on what IS happening with the market price, rather than based on what anyone predicts will happen.

      Delete
  2. Replies
    1. Thanks. Wish I could tell which Anonymous you are, or maybe there is only one!

      Delete