Sunday, 1 May 2016

S&P 500, Dow lower from trend line resistance, bullish seasonal patterns failing

Bullish seasonal patterns have recently failed to lift the S&P 500 from its almost one year old trading range. The November to April period is commonly positive for US stocks, but November 2015 to April 2016 was negative. Years ending in the digit 5 had always been positive since the late 19th century, but 2015 was negative.

If the market cannot lift under the influence of positive seasonal forces, how will it perform under the influence of negative seasonal forces, such as those exerted during the imminent May to October period?

S&P 500 daily chart. Lower following a false upside break above trend channel resistance. Charts include all sessions trade.

Dow daily chart. Lower from channel resistance. Possible Elliott Wave count shown, though of course there are other more bearish possibilities, and bullish possibilities.

Next zooming way out to the S&P 500 monthly chart. The false upside break from the trend channel was expected to be bearish, and indeed was initially. Now range bound, as per the daily chart. Trade the range until the market breaks decisively from it.