Friday, 8 April 2016

S&P 500 rolling over at resistance, key Dow trend line could support rally to new highs

S&P 500 appears to be rolling over lower at resistance. Daily chart. All charts include all sessions trade.

Dow daily chart confirms a near term bearish view on US stocks, having thrust lower through potential trend line support after a brief false break higher. The illustrated wave count is short term bearish but medium term bullish, calling for rally to new highs after completion of a triangle. There are more bearish alternate counts but this is the cleanest count and I think must be favoured. The blue line is how I will measure the bearish potential of any decline in the coming period. Why? Weekly chart will illustrate.

Dow weekly chart (log scale) show a clear trend channel in blue, the lower line is the same shown on the above daily chart. If the Dow can hold above this line, then in my view the Dow and S&P 500 will retain medium term bullish potential to rally to new highs, after perhaps seeing a decline in coming weeks. Let's see.