Wednesday, 6 April 2016

S&P 500 lower through trend line support, needs break < Tuesday low to confirm top

The S&P 500 has broken below short term trend line support. Daily chart, all sessions. Is a significant top in? Nobody knows. Given the proximity of the key blue trend channel lines, for now I am managing risk against that level rather this week's high.

Dow all sessions daily chart shows that a move below the Tuesday low is required to complete a bearish false break above trend line resistance. To me such a move would confirm this week's high as a tradeable top and allow me to measure risk at that level, also on the S&P. The Elliott Wave labels I've shown are just one possibility, short term bearish but medium term bullish. There are also immediately and medium term bearish possibilities. But just quietly, between you and me, my gut favours the scenario I've illustrated. Let's see.