Sunday, 10 April 2016

S&P 500 lower at resistance, Dow triangle hints US stocks decline to mid-June, then rally to new record highs

S&P 500 daily chart. Appears to be turning lower at confluence of resistance. All charts include all sessions trade.

S&P 500 4 hour chart. Move below parallel trend line adds confidence to the near term bearish view.

Next, the Dow daily chart labelled as an Elliott Wave triangle. Each wave of the triangle has lasted around 2.5 months, which indicates to look for wave E to bottom around mid June.

Dow weekly chart (log scale) shows my favoured larger degree wave count, implying wave 5 to new record highs lies ahead. As discussed on Friday, (only) a move below the blue trend channel would require serious consideration of more bearish alternate counts.

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