Thursday, 31 March 2016

S&P 500 rally continues, 3 most likely possible paths for coming months illustrated

The S&P 500's rally continued Wednesday. Daily chart illustrates. All charts include all sessions trade.



I think the S&P 500 has three most likely possible paths in coming months, illustrated below on weekly charts with their respective Elliott Wave counts. I don't claim to be able to objectively rank them in order of likelihood. All illustrated scenarios call for a decline from nearby current levels.

First possibility is that a five wave rally to new highs has begun, with a wave 2 correction due next, then waves 3-4-5 onwards and upwards. To many this probably "feels" the most likely of my illustrated possibilities due to the recent strong rally.



Second possibility is that the market will continue a sideways correction for several more months before beginning a rally to new highs. This scenario has many different possible permutations for wave Y, and I have only illustrated one below. A fresh low as shown is not required, depending on what form wave Y takes. FWIW my gut currently favours the scenario illustrated below.



Third possibility is that the market is near to completing a wave 2 rally, and will next begin a fierce 3rd of a 3rd wave lower, to be followed by further decline in a sequence of 4th and 5th waves. This probably "feels" the least likely scenario, but it cannot be ruled out.


3 comments:

  1. Noob, question: w the short bounce at 50% retrace, is that a typical pattern for retracement?

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  2. Do you mean wave 2 in the first scenario? Yep somewhere around 50% would be typical. In any case, my "projection" lines are meant to illustrate possible form rather than precise targets.

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  3. Yes, projection only, thanks. Hard to type in iOS9. Not sure why?

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