Saturday, 30 January 2016

Stock markets globally have likely completed the correction from the 2015 highs

Stock markets globally have likely completed the correction from the 2015 highs.

This post argues the bullish case by presenting all sessions charts for the past year's trade of six major globally traded stock indexes, namely the US S&P 500, the Japanese Nikkei, the European EURO STOXX 50, the Australian ASX 200, the Hong Kong Hang Seng, and the Indian Nifty.

In Elliott Wave terms, each of those indexes shows a completed three wave corrective move, or complex variation of a completed three wave corrective move. Many of those corrections bottomed ideally at trend channel support, boosting confidence in the bullish case.

S&P 500 shows ideal corrective trend channel



Nikkei shows ideal corrective trend channel



EURO STOXX 50 shows ideal corrective trend channel



ASX 200 shows an all sessions double bottom. It should lead the way higher as its correction bottomed before the other illustrated markets, in August, and it is beginning a 3rd wave higher.



Hang Seng. I am not as confident that this one has bottomed as I am with the other illustrated markets. Wish there was clear trend line support for this one, though the three wave move is clear.



Nifty shows ideal corrective trend channel



The implication of these completed corrections is that stock markets have bottomed and are now in the early stages of rallying to beyond the 2015 highs. Clear;y the message of this post is a 180 degree turn from my bearish opinion of only a few weeks ago, an opinion held and publicised for many months prior, but I've gotta call it as I see it. Markets presented us with key new information in mid January, particularly the S&P 500 and ASX 200 when they failed to hold below the August lows. So, the chart pattern changed, my reading of the chart patterns changed, and so did my opinion.




3 comments:

  1. Fair call mate - you have to have a flexible mind and rigid rules...

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  2. What you say "when they failed to hold below the August lows", I say "softening up August supports". Remember - it take more than one push to knock over a coke machine.

    We should know by the end of the month what's happening.

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    Replies
    1. I know what you're saying. And I'll be the first to admit I don't have a crystal ball. But the way so many markets stopped falling at trend channel supports, after corrective looking declines (ie. overlapping, not strongly trending) makes me think a tradeable bottom is in.

      If the market proves that view wrong, I'll change it. 180 degree turns are my speciality. As Perter Brandt says, "strong opinions, weakly held".

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