Wednesday, 6 January 2016

S&P 500 is January 2016 analogous to June 2008?

Weekly chart price action measured against the 40 and 18 week moving averages suggests that the current market position could be analogous to June 2008. 

First chart is a weekly of the S&P 500 10 months either side of the 2007 peak. Note that June 2008 saw a decline through the 18 week moving average, which directly preceded the strongest period of decline in 2008.

Second chart shows the S&P 500 chart 10 months either side of the 2015 peak. The analogy to June 2008 is that the market is currently slicing lower through the 18 week moving average some months after the 18 and 40 week averages had crossed bearishly. Will the analogy continue with a strong decline in coming months? I suspect so, based as much on clear bearish patterns and wave counts in Asian and European markets, as anything I see on the S&P 500 itself. I think that the US markets and S&P will not be able to swim against the global tide. Let's see.