Thursday, 7 January 2016

ASX 200 the (down) trend is your friend, so don't be an ostrich

Daily chart trend is down. Santa rally faltered at resistance. To have a chance of mounting a meaningful rally, this market must break upwards through the down trend line. Failing that, favour further downside in coming weeks and months. Charts in this post include after hours trade.

Weekly chart shows that the market is pushing lower from the channel formed since the 2009 low, which boosts the view that current down trend has further to run. Log scale chart. Some insist that arithmetic is the only scale to use... horses for courses.... I prefer whichever scale shows the neatest channels for the market I am examining... log scale in the case of the ASX 200. Stock indexes often move in channels, it seems part of their nature, but sometimes they channel on arithmetic scale, and sometimes log. Take what the market gives you.

Monthly chart illustrates my long held Elliott Wave count and likely scenario for the coming year. You may have good reasons for disagreeing with this outlook, or you may simply be adopting the ostrich posture and refusing to consider it, but in either of those cases, please respect that daily chart down trend line.