Wednesday, 9 December 2015

ASX 200 set to rally from corrective trend channel? Maybe, but beware bearish big picture

4 hour chart shows the ASX 200 testing trend channel support. Given the impulsive nature of the rally from mid-November, and the corrective drift lower from late-November, I am expecting another impulsive rally to begin from nearby current levels, to exceed the November high. Let's see.



Daily chart shows that the market has moved broadly sideways for over three months. So long as nearby blue trend line support remains unbroken, a rally to test the outer down trend line would not surprise, just short of 5400.



Monthly chart shows my view of the big picture. Whether or not we next see a rally as speculated above, a decisive close below 5000 will indicate that the next leg in wave C lower has begun.



Thought I'd explain why I haven't posted much recently. I switched my head to summer holiday mode a couple of weeks ago, with lots of family gatherings and holiday travel planned from that time through to the end of January. I will keep an eye on the markets but with reduced focus. Therefore I will post and Tweet less frequently between now and the end of January than has commonly been the case.