Sunday, 6 September 2015

ASX 200 slices through trend line supports to boost target of 2500 (50%+ drop) within a year

Monthly chart shows the ASX 200 slicing through trend line support. The Elliott Wave count projects a target at the bottom of the illustrated corrective channel, around 2500. The Australian market is not alone in being bearishly poised. Have a look at the charts for US, European, Chinese, and Japanese indexes that I posted earlier today.



Weekly chart zooms in on the slice through trend line support. Note the weekly close below the line.



Daily chart zooms in on recent action and crucially, near term resistance that must be beaten before any sustainable rally can develop.



4 hour chart suggests the market is testing the neckline of a head and shoulders top. A break would initially target 4700. As per the monthly chart, I favour much lower levels in coming months.


S&P 500 falling toward 1700 in coming weeks? Current trend channel suggests days.

Monthly chart shows the S&P 500 turning lower at the top of a multi-decade channel. August's low probed key parallel trend line support. A break below that support would favour further declines. Charts include all sessions trade.



Weekly chart zooms in to show that if the August low is broken, next trend line support is around 1700.



Daily chart zooms in on recent action. Unless nearby resistance is beaten the trend dictates that we must favour further declines. The market is currently trending sharply lower in the channel drawn in purple.



The next daily chart zooms out to illustrate the target if the market continues to trend lower inside the same purple channel. 1700 around the end of this week. That idea will seem absurd to most.To me it seems distinctly possible, though of course it is just one possibility. Don't rule it out.



Hang Seng weekly chart Elliott Wave count favours > 50% decline from current levels


EURO STOXX 50 monthly chart trend line breaks favour further decline (understatement)


Nikkei monthly chart - the fall below 2007 high favours further decline


Gold preparing to rally toward 1250+?

Weekly chart shows Gold rallying from trend channel support. Previous rallies from the nearby trend line have been good for 200, give or take. Why expect anything different this time?



Daily chart shows Gold testing the level of the November 2014 low. Looks precarious in the short term, though only a decline below the July low will seriously damage the case for an advance to 1250+. Why do I say that? Let's zoom in again.



4 hour chart illustrates a clear five waves up, which defines the trend as up unless/until the July low is broken. The Elliott Wave count suggests that the market may need to test the lower purple corrective channel line before another 5 wave rally unfolds, but Friday's brief poke below the wave A low could be the end of wave C, in which case Gold will begin rallying early next week . Let's see.


Silver holding above 2014 low, preparing to rally?

Weekly chart. The current consolidation from the late 2014 low is brief compared to the periods of consolidation from lows in 2011 and 2013, a hint that Silver may not yet break down? In which case it will rally soon from nearby current levels.



Daily chart.



AUD/USD breaks monthly, weekly, daily supports - accelerating lower?

My AUD/USD posts and tweets in recent weeks have been calling for a low. Wrong! The market last week broke below separate trend lines on monthly, weekly, and daily charts. A good example of why it is wise to trade in alignment with the market trend, and not only in alignment with your opinion (or anyone else's opinion).

Monthly



Weekly



Daily



EUR/USD short term trend line break says be watchful for resumption of big picture bear market

Monthly



Weekly



Daily chart shows the market breaking short term trend line support. A move below the lower line of the corrective channel would raise the odds that the big picture decline is kicking lower. The brief throw over of the top channel line provided warning of the recent drop.


AUD/JPY weekly chart trend channel break & Elliott Wave count favours continued decline

Weekly chart. Labels indicate possible form of decline going forward. I didn't put any thought in to levels and timing, anything could happen, point is, favour the downside in coming months.