Thursday, 3 September 2015

ASX 200 weekly, daily, hourly charts - short term Head & Shoulders top flags further decline

Weekly chart shows the ASX 200 pushing lower through the trend line drawn from the 2009 and 2012 lows. Charts include all sessions trade.

Daily chart shows the market recently turned lower at trend line resistance. Today it popped higher to test the line drawn from the October and December lows, before trading lower. Needless to say (?) the immediate trend will remain down unless nearby resistance is beaten.

Hourly chart shows a short term Head and Shoulders top appears to be forming. A break below the neckline around 5000 would offer an initial target of 4700, give or take, in any case below the August low.

S&P 500 weekly, daily, hourly charts - nearby resistance skews risk to downside

Weekly chart illustrates recent trend line breaks which have opened a path for possible further decline, with a target around 1700 at the trend line drawn from the lows of 2009 and 2011. Charts include all sessions trade.

Daily chart next. It is the nature of markets that we should favour further imminent decline while nearby resistance is unbeaten. Key to the bearish view is last week's high, though there are other resistance lines closer to the current market level, both on the daily chart and if we drill down further.

Hourly chart illustrates a cluster of trend line resistance just below 1970. Will the market pop higher to test that zone? It's not far away. Though with the bigger picture down trend, any surprises will be to the downside. A decline through the nearby support lines would suggest a resumption of the down trend is underway.

Gold weekly, daily, 4 hour charts - further correction before next advance?

Weekly chart shows Gold rallying from trend channel support. Previous rallies from the nearby trend line have been good for 200, give or take. Why expect anything different this time?

Daily chart shows Gold testing support around the up trend line that captures the recent rally, plus the level of the November 2014 low. Looks precarious in the short term, though only a decline below the July low will seriously damage the case for an advance to 1250+. Why do I say that? Let's zoom in again.

4 hour chart illustrates a clear five waves up, which defines the trend as up unless/until the July low is broken. Next trend line support is just above 1120. In my opinion, lower levels are possible and would not prove fatal to the larger bullish case. The Elliott Wave count suggests that the market may need to test the lower purple corrective channel line before another 5 wave rally unfolds, or at least probe below the low of wave A. Let's see.