Sunday, 19 July 2015

ASX 200 testing parallel trend line resistance, unlikely that 3.5 year rally can be corrected in 2 months

Daily chart shows the ASX 200 testing parallel trend line resistance.Other nearby resistance surrounds 5750.



Weekly chart shows that the ASX 200 recently completed 5 waves up from the 2011 low. It would be surprising if a complete 5 waves up that lasted 3.5 years could be fully corrected in just 2 months. I expect the correction will last longer and carry deeper. As I illustrated in early June, the market may have completed the rally from the 2009 low, and could be in the early stages of travelling below that low.


S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 possible trend line resistance is nearby

S&P 500 daily chart shows possible trend line and trend channel resistance both nearby.



NASDAQ 100 daily chart shows possible trend line resistance is nearby. The NASDAQ has lead the broader US stock market higher in recent years, so is worth keeping a close eye on.



S&P 500 weekly chart shows that if the daily chart resistance levels are beaten, longer term trend channel resistance is above 2200, and rising.


Hang Seng below key resistance levels, 60% decline on the cards

Daily chart shows the Hang Seng is trading below key resistance levels.



Weekly chart illustrates my favoured Elliott Wave count and scenario. A close below trend channel support would put this scenario on firm footing.


Gold testing key supports, upside potential greater than downside inside weekly channel

Daily chart shows Gold testing short term trend channel support, and far more importantly the low of last November.



Weekly chart shows Gold in the middle of a channel. A break of last week's low could see it fall swiftly below 1100, but so long as that support holds, within the channel it's clear that upside potential is greater than downside right now.


Silver holding above key supports, relatively short consolidation suggests rally soon?

Daily chart shows Silver holding above trend channel support.



Weekly chart. The current consolidation from the late 2014 low is brief compared to the periods of consolidation from lows in 2011 and 2013, a hint that Silver may not yet break down? In which case it will rally soon from nearby current levels.


AUD/USD nearby trend lines suggest target for decline of 0.72 to 0.725

Daily chart nearby lower trend line is around 0.72.



Weekly chart nearby trend line is around 0.725.


AUD/JPY daily and weekly charts retesting broken trend lines, in early stages of a big decline?

Daily



Weekly


EUR/USD daily, weekly, monthly charts prompt more questions than answers

It's probably just me and my current mood, but when I look at the EUR/USD charts, I tend to have more questions than answers.

Daily chart shows EUR/USD near possible support at the May low.



Weekly chart illustrates a medium term bullish Elliott Wave count. Wave C may or may not have bottomed.



Monthly chart calls the bullish EW count in to question, as perhaps the market is in the early stages of a long decline following a break down of a giant Head and Shoulders top?