Tuesday, 7 July 2015

ASX 200 trend channels. Back to basics. Why fuck with magic?

Daily chart trend is down. Back to basics in my posts this week. I had a very profitable 2014-15 Oz financial year, which persuaded me foolishly but momentarily of my own genius, hence all the short term Elliott Wave counts last week. I can count and trade the waves better than most, but really why bother chasing all the short term swings, when trading with the main trend is so much easier? Why fuck with magic? Simplest is best in trading, as it provides less options for wriggling out of a plan. EW is an important part of my trading approach, but like any indicator, edges identified at longer time frames offer greater potential rewards.

Weekly chart shows the market testing key trend channel support. Keep an eye on Europe (eg. EURO STOXX 50), China (eg. Hang Seng), and of course the US (eg. S&P 500).

S&P 500 futures rally then turn lower at cluster of trend line & Fibo resistances

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 futures trading higher than Monday's New York close of 2069ish, but off the highs of earlier in the day. The market turned lower at a cluster of Fibo and trend lines. Daily chart illustrates the first line.

4 hour chart illustrates that the market turned lower at another trend line providing resistance, plus the Fibo 50% retracement of the most recent decline, plus the lower end of the gap initially formed at the end of June.

For completeness, below is a re-post of the cash market chart I showed earlier today. The Head and Shoulders neckline is key resistance.

Hang Seng slices lower through more supports, 60%+ decline from current levels is on the cards

Daily chart shows the Hang Seng continuing to slice lower. Reminds me of an old saying, that in a bear market there's no such thing as support.

Weekly chart illustrates my long favoured Elliott Wave count and scenario. A key test for this scenario would be trend line support around 23500. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.... manage risk by looking for upside levels that would reduce the chances of the bearish scenario unfolding.

EURO STOXX 50 index completes HUGELY bearish false upside break from 2009 to 2015 trend channel

AUD/USD lower from parallel trend line resistance, plunges fresh lows, next target 72.80?

Daily chart shows the AUD/USD turned lower at the parallel trend line I showed last week, and has since plunged to fresh lows.

Weekly chart trend channel suggests possible support around 72.80

S&P 500 daily chart lower from Head & Shoulders top, neckline is key resistance