Sunday, 28 June 2015

ASX 200 trending down, starting steep decline, targeting 5100 in coming days. Below 3000 next year?

Daily chart shows the ASX 200 trending down. To state the obvious, a down trend indicates that we should favour lower levels going forward.

The 4 hour chart Elliott Wave count suggests that the market is just beginning the steepest portion so far of the decline from the April peak. Wave iii lower is underway, and as a third of a third wave, it should be accelerated, extended, and relentless. A target for the size of wave iii is a Fibo 1.618 times the size of wave i, which would take the market to 5100 within days, a target I tweeted on Friday afternoon.

Zooming out next, the weekly chart shows that any decline below the June low would break trend channel support. It also illustrates a complete five waves up from the 2011, so the rally at this degree of trend is finished.

Monthly chart shows my favoured bigger picture wave count and scenario going forward. The completed weekly chart rally appears to have completed the entire upward correction from the 2009 low. A break of the trend channel support shown above on the weekly chart will strengthen the odds toward this scenario. Wave C will likely carry lower than I have shown, more quickly than anyone expects.

S&P 500 testing trend line support, five waves down suggests trend has turned down

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 testing trend line support, though the two next lower trend lines appear more important.

4 hour chart shows five waves down followed by three waves up, indicating that the trend is down. So, expect lower levels in coming days, at the least.

Hang Seng declines sharply following retest of neck line support, 60%+ decline beginning?

Daily chart shows the Hang Seng last week retested the neck line of the recent Head and Shoulders top, and then declined sharply.

Weekly chart shows that the Head and Shoulders top coincided with trend channel resistance, and also illustrates my long standing favoured big picture Elliott Wave count and scenario going forward.

AUD/USD range bound but approaching test of key support

EUR/USD near test of trend line support