Friday, 19 June 2015

AUD/USD turning lower from mid channel resistance and 40 day moving average?

Daily chart shows AUD/USD apparently turning lower from mid channel resistance and 40 day moving average. Beginning a move to retest channel support? Moves from the 40 day have had legs more often than not over the past year.


Dow futures show 5 waves down and 3 waves up, is a big top in place?

4 hour chart of the Dow futures / all sessions from the early June all time high shows 5 waves down and 3 waves up, with wave C likely near completion. If the count is correct, the next move will be another 5 waves down to new lows.



Weekly chart shows that the recent low tested trend line support. So any move to new lows will break trend line support. Might we have seen a big top for the Dow?


ASX 200 Elliott Waves are clear as a bell in decline from late April, swift move lower comes next

The ASX 200 Elliott Waves are clear as a bell in the decline from late April. Wave iii of 3 will carry the market much lower at a rapid rate. It may have begun at today's high, though it may begin after further rally. The late May high is key to this scenario, so for it to continue as preferred count, the market must stay under 5807. Frankly I'll be surprised if the market gets anywhere near that level, even if the S&P 500 manages new highs. But hey I've been surprised before, many times. Trade what you see.





Silver weakness suggests caution for Gold's bull case, both testing trend line resistance

Silver declined strongly toward the end of US trade, to close below key trend line resistance after spending most of the session well above it. A bearish false upside break? If so, don't get too bullish on Gold in the short term. The two precious metals do sometimes go their own completely separate ways, but it doesn't often pay to count on that being the case.



Gold is testing short term trend line resistance. It is worth considering all the scenarios described above the monthly chart in yesterday's post, both bullish and bearish.