Tuesday, 5 May 2015

ASX 200 testing dual trend line support on daily, hourly EW says strong decline ahead

Daily chart shows the ASX 200 testing dual trend line support, still range bound. Charts include after hours trade.

Hourly chart Elliott Wave count shows that a third wave lower is beginning. If correct, expect a strong decline and a break lower from the daily chart range.

S&P 500 probing toward record highs on weak volume, monthly MACDH warns of weakness ahead

Daily chart of the S&P 500 shows the market probing toward record highs. Volume is low and declining, as I illustrated in a tweet earlier today. The look of this chart reminds me of a saying, that stock market tops are most often a process, not an event. Can't remember where I heard that.

Why am I looking for a top? Monthly chart MACDH is negative, which doesn't guarantee a decline directly ahead, but certainly warns of one. Go and study your longer term charts, you'll see what I mean. 

Hang Seng turns decisively lower at top of 3.5 year old trend channel. 60%+ decline beginning?

Weekly chart shows the Hang Seng turning decisively lower at the top of a 3.5 year, almost 4 year old trend channel.

Zooming out shows my long term Elliott Wave count and the implied market action going forward. Namely a 60%+ decline in the next couple of years.

EURO STOXX 50 daily chart trend is down, mired in long term bear market

Daily chart trend for the EURO STOX 50 index is down. To state the obvious, favour lower levels in the near term, perhaps a test of old trend line resistance around 3400, which is better illustrated on the long term charts.

Zooming way out to a monthly chart, shows that the trend line on the daily chart is the top line of a long term channel. Market action in the channel and in the brief rally out of the channel all looks to me like an upward correction, perhaps a completed upwards correction. Therefore I expect a move below the 2009 low in coming years. Price back inside the channel would be the first concrete indication that this scenario is more than a fantasy.