Sunday, 26 April 2015

ASX 200 should soon beat 6000, but potential upside appears limited

Daily chart shows the ASX 200 last week rallied from trend line support, giving an ascending triangle look to recent action. the triangle suggests that the market should soon beat resistance at 6000. A measured target from the triangle is 6250, calculated by adding the height of the triangle (250ish) to the (potential) breakout level (6000).



Weekly chart shows that the market is already testing trend channel resistance, which may limit upside potential. Also keep an eye on US and Chinese stocks. Two of the indexes from those countries which I track, the NASDAQ 100 and Hang Seng are also testing long term trend channel resistance.


S&P 500 rallies free from triangle, targeting 2180/2190

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 rallying free of the triangle. A measured target from the triangle is around 2190, calculated by adding the height of the triangle (80) to the level of breakout (2110). Also keep an eye on trend line resistance at just above 2140. People with an interest in US stocks should also keep an eye on the NASDAQ 100, which is now only a few points from testing long term trend channel resistance.



Weekly chart trend channel resistance kicks in around 2190.




NASDAQ 100 again hits top of 6.5 year old trend channel

Daily chart of the NASDAQ 100, for reference more than anything else, as the subsequent chart is far more important.



Weekly chart shows the NASDAQ 100 once again hitting the top of the trend channel which has captured market action for the past 6.5 years. Will the market ride up the underside of the top line? Or turn lower? Or will we finally see a push above the line? If the latter, keep a close lookout for a move back inside the channel. Throwovers are classic signals that accompany the end of a trend. For now, all options are on the table.


Hang Seng wrestling trend channel resistance, on the cusp of an epic decline

The recent steep rally in the Hang Seng, illustrated on the daily chart, drew a lot of attention and exclamations of bullishness from many finance pundits who usually don't give this market a glance.



Weekly chart trend lines and Elliott Wave count suggest that any bullish proclamations should be taken with a grain of salt. The Hang Seng is wrestling trend channel resistance, stretched to the upside, and should be on the cusp of an epic decline.


AUD/USD needs move to 0.80 to hint at lasting bottom

Daily chart illustrates that the AUD/USD has for the past year been a delight to trade for anyone who uses a pencil and ruler. It also illustrates short term trend channel resistance just below 0.80, which must be beaten before higher levels can be approached.


Weekly chart shows that the April low coincided with longer term trend channel support. For me this raises the odds that a move higher now could have legs.




EUR/USD rallies through trend line resistance, beginning move to 1.30s?

Daily chart shows EUR/USD rallying through trend line resistance. Importantly it also shows key short term trend channel resistance around 1.11, which must be beaten if higher levels are to be approached.



Weekly chart shows my favoured big picture Elliott Wave count, which is where I get the 1.30s target mentioned in the title of this post. For now it's a hypothetical scenario, one which I will take more seriously if 1.11 and short term channel resistance are beaten... til then we can't rule out fresh lows.


Gold choppy, in my view the jury is out on which direction it takes in coming weeks

Daily chart shows Gold's choppy recent trade. I had been considering an inverse Head and Shoulders bottom beginning in mid March, but last week's decline has taken that option off the table. Now it looks likely to be forming bearish continuation Head and Shoulders beginning last November. The right shoulder may be complete, or it could still be forming, which would allow a rally in coming weeks. Let's see.



Weekly chart down trend indicates that regardless of what happens in coming weeks, Gold will likely trade lower in coming months. This does not rule out a rally toward 1300 before we see lower levels.


Silver testing trend line support

Daily chart shows Silver testing trend line support



Weekly chart down trend indicates that lower levels are likely in coming months, regardless of what happens with the current trend line test