Sunday, 8 February 2015

ASX 200 testing dual trend line resistance

The recent ASX 200 rally has been spectacular, but I view the downside risk as being far greater than the upside potential for this market, at the time frames I track here. Especially given that I see US stocks turning lower, European stocks stalled at big trend channel resistance likely pending a turn lower, and my proxy for China the Hang Seng also turning lower.

Daily chart shows the ASX 200 testing trend line resistance. Includes after hours trade. Log scale this week, think I showed arithmetic scale charts a bit recently.



Weekly chart shows the market testing a second and larger degree trend channel line. Could possibly target the top of the blue channel if (if) we see a breakout of the black channel.


S&P 500 testing short term trend channel resistance, turning lower inside two long term channels

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 testing short term trend channel resistance. Charts include after hours trade.



Next chart is a Dow daily, also testing short term trend channel resistance.



Zooming out to an S&P weekly shows the market turned lower at the top of the trend channel drawn from the late 2011 low.



Zooming out still further shows that the S&P turned lower at the top of an even longer term channel, dating back to the early 90s, and is currently sitting atop a third channel. A break lower back in to that third channel would be a strong sign that the rally from the 2009 low is finished.


EURO STOXX 50 still turning lower at dual trend channel resistance

Daily chart shows the EURO STOXX 50 index turning lower at dual trend channel resistance. The topmost line is the upper line of the channel formed from the 2009 low. Not much change from last week's post. Charts include after hours trade.



Monthly chart illustrates the channel formed from the 2009 low. I haven't shown the Elliott Wave count, perhaps in a future post, but over the next couple of years I expect to see a decline to well below the 2009 low.


Hang Seng turning lower at trend line resistance, 60%+ decline still on the cards

Daily chart shows the Hang Seng turning lower at trend line resistance. Includes after hours trade.



Weekly chart shows the big picture Elliott Wave count, calling for a decline to below the 2008 low.


AUD/USD beginning to rally from dual trend channel support. Due a sizable rally?

Daily chart shows the AUD/USD beginning to rally from trend channel support.



Weekly chart shows AUD/USD has also tested or is near to testing support from a second, larger degree trend channel. Is the market now due a sizable rally??


EUR/USD down trend catching a breather, but fresh lows likely

Daily chart shows that the EUR/USD has in recent days been catching a breather. Still positioned below the down trend channel that captured all the action in 2014.



Weekly chart down trend channel suggests that support is still some distance below the market, in fact off the screen.


Gold short term trend is up, testing larger degree trend line resistance

Daily chart shows that Gold's short term trend is up.



Monthly chart shows that Gold is testing mid channel resistance.


Silver testing or nearing trend line support within larger degree down trend

Daily chart shows Silver either testing or nearing trend line support, depending on which channel the market chooses to respect (if any!)



Weekly chart shows that the larger degree trend is down.