Monday, 26 January 2015

ASX 200 showing another false upside trend line break?

Daily chart includes after hours trade through to Monday's European session, and has me wondering, have we seen another false upside trend line break by the ASX 200?

My big picture view for this market has not changed, the monthly chart shows the Elliott Wave count that best fits market action since 2007:

Keep an eye on Europe, which is at a key juncture, as illustrated in my earlier post by the charts of the EURO STOXX 50 index. If Europe rallies free it will cast doubt as to whether the big B wave top is in for the ASX 200, and may cast doubt on the entire count. But if Europe doesn't rally free, my big picture scenario could prove too bullish.

S&P 500 turning lower at long term trend channel resistance?

Monthly chart shows the S&P 500 testing trend channel resistance.

Daily chart shows the short term trend lines that I am working with. Failing an advance through trend line resistance around 2080, I believe a big top is already in. Let's see.

Keep an eye on Europe, which is at a key juncture, as illustrated in my earlier post by the charts of the EURO STOXX 50 index.

EURO STOXX 50 index testing key trend channel resistance

As I tweeted last week, be bearish on Europe unless the EURO STOXX 50 index can beat trend channel resistance, as illustrated on the monthly chart. It's close, but not there yet.

Daily chart zooms in to show that this index is in fact testing resistance at the confluence of two trend lines... the shallow topmost line is of course the top channel line from the monthly chart.

Hang Seng turning lower at dual trend channel resistance?

Daily chart shows the Hang Seng possibly turning lower at dual trend channel resistance.

Weekly chart zooms out to show the Elliott Wave count I have been favouring for some months now. The market should not beat last week's high if this count is correct.

Gold's rally is nearing mid channel trend line resistance

Daily chart shows Gold's recent rally, so far beating down trend line after down trend line, no worries at all.

Weekly chart zooms out to show that Gold is nearing a critical test of mid channel trend line resistance.

Both chart are log scale.

Silver's rally is nearing resistance

Daily chart shows Silver's recent rally.

Weekly chart zooms out to illustrate that the rally is nearing resistance at multiple lows from 2013 and 2014, also at the parallel trend line drawn from the mid 2014 high.

Both charts are log scale.

AUD/USD testing important support, could be headed for mid 70s?

Daily chart shows that following the test of trend line resistance in mid January, the AUD/USD last week hit fresh lows for the move.

Weekly chart shows the market is testing an important support zone from the past. Always best to think of support and resistance as zones rather than precise levels. Trend channel support could be the next target? Around 75.

Both charts are linear scale, Just to show a slightly different view of things. Previously I have shown log scale for this market. Both scales are useful for this market.

EUR/USD down trend continues, targeting trend channel support < 1.06?

Daily chart shows that mid last week the EUR/USD rallied to test the underside of the year old trend channel, then turned lower again, plunging in to the end of the week.

Weekly chart. Targeting trend channel support just below 1.06?

Both charts log scale. Seems to work best for this market.