Sunday, 18 January 2015

ASX 200 rallies from short term trend channel support but the trend remains down

Daily includes after hours trade and shows that the ASX 200 all sessions has rallied from short term trend channel support, but also that the trend remains down.

Weekly chart.

S&P 500 daily and monthly chart trend lines indicate last week's low is hugely important

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 all sessions rallied from trend line support on Friday. The bearishly crossed moving averages indicate that the trend is down.

Monthly chart suggests that the market is forming a top at the upper line of the illustrated long term up trend channel. A weekly close below last week's low and then the December low would complete a bearish false upside break from the trend channel formed from the 2009 low, and likely confirm a top.

Gold breaks trend line resistance, next potential resistance some distance away

Daily chart shows that so far in January Gold has left three down trend resistance lines in its rear view mirror.

Weekly chart suggest that next potential resistance is some distance away.

Monthly chart suggests that Gold may have formed a bullish flag from the 2011 peak. Or alternatively that it has completed the first leg down of a big bear market and is rallying to correct that decline. Anyone who has followed my posts might guess that I favour the bullish case, or at least hope it will play out. Bull markets are easier to trade than bear markets, is the only reason for that bias. But truly it is too early to know which scenario will unfold in coming years.

Silver's near term trend is up, still some distance from potential resistance

Daily chart shows Silver's near term trend is up.

Weekly chart shows a larger degree down trend, until/unless the upper trend channel line is beaten to the upside. The lows of mid 2013 and mid 2014 may act as resistance but they are some distance above the market.

Monthly chart. Maybe rallying to kiss goodbye to the old up trend channel? Or maybe it'll power on upwards. Only time will tell.

AUD/USD closes dead on trend line drawn from peaks in 2008 and 2010

Daily chart shows the AUD/USD nearing a test of the illustrated key down trend line.

Weekly chart shows the market closed dead on the trend line drawn from peaks in 2008 and 2010. The market's attraction to this line in recent weeks suggests it is still important, and may yet again prove a key decision point.

EUR/USD headed toward trend channel support around 1.06?

I have recently been bottom picking the EUR/USD, as I was looking for the levels between the 2005 and 2010 lows to offer some support. A losing proposition, as things have turned out.

Fresh view of the weekly chart suggests that the EUR/USD could decline toward 1.06 before finding trend channel support. Possible parallel trend line support is around 1.13.