Friday, 23 October 2015

S&P 500 rallying to kiss goodbye to old trend channels?

Is the S&P 500 rallying to kiss goodbye to the old trend channels shown below? Note the '?'. Uncertainty reigns when it comes to future market behaviour. One thing is certain though, the market has no business being above 2100 in the next couple of weeks if we are to see strong declines in the coming period, as that would take it well above both nearby trend lines. Weekly chart, all sessions.

Next weekly chart zooms out slightly and adds a 40 week moving average. I use a 40 period moving average at every timeframe to time trade entries. Right now this chart indicates to me that any decline back below the 40 week moving average would be a short. A weekly close would add confidence but likely result in a lower entry, one of the common trading trade offs. Experience with your own emotions will tell you which (if any) of those approaches would fit in your own trade entry strategy.

Finally a chart of the cash market through to the Thursday close. The market is smack in the middle of a resistance zone which strengthens around 2080.