Tuesday, 16 December 2014

S&P 500, NASDAQ, Hang Seng, DAX, Nikkei, ASX 200 weekly charts all suggest further downside potential

S&P 500 has turned lower from the top of its trend channel.

NASDAQ 100 has turned lower from the top of its trend channel.

Hang Seng has broken trend line support, and the Elliott Wave count that I have been tracking for some months remains on track, suggesting 60%+ downside potential in the next year or two.

DAX looks to have completed a bearish false break above two lines of resistance. Also its behaviour is an echo of the big peak in 2007 (not shown), where it made a high mid year, then declined before making a marginal new high toward the end of the year, then cascaded lower til early 2009.

Nikkei has turned lower at trend line resistance

ASX 200 is trading below parallel trend line support. I've left this one til last as you might be getting tired of me banging on about it. But just in case you missed last night's post, I think this market may just be beginning its steepest and strongest decline since it peaked in August.

Gold showing bullish false break of up trend line drawn from 2005 and 2008 lows

Arithmetic scale monthly chart. I usually only look at log scale for Gold (eg. last week's post) but am playing around tonight. Interesting, I think. Both arithmetic and log scale long term charts suggest that last month's low is key, and that a meaningful rally may have begun there, perhaps even toward new record highs.

AUD/USD testing trend line support drawn from extremes in 2004, 2005, 2010

Monthly chart. As I've shown previously, the AUD/USD has broken lower from its recent down trend channel. The current test of trend line support looks important to me. Like any trend line test, could go either way.

EUR/USD nearby/testing key trend line support drawn from 2010 and 2012 lows

Monthly chart. Came close to a trend line touch earlier this month, but was pips away, for what it's worth. Failure to test may be a sign of strength, or perhaps an actual trend line test awaits?