Monday, 15 December 2014

ASX 200 Elliott Wave count suggests powerful decline beginning

The ASX 200 daily chart Elliott Wave count illustrated below indicates that a third of a third decline is beginning, ie. the third wave of a third wave. For non-Elliott Wavers, it is enough to understand that third waves are usually the most powerful portion of a trend, and a third of a third can be a sight to behold. It's also worth explaining that an Elliott Wave count is not a forecast, merely a reading of the best way to describe market action to date, which under the Elliott Wave model provides implications for the most probable outcome going forward. In markets, uncertainty reigns, but often one outcome is more likely than others.

Weekly chart zooms out to illustrate the path the market should follow in coming weeks if (IF) my count proves correct. If we do not see a swift decline, I will be looking at alternate scenarios. A move above the purple wave 2 peak would weaken the immediately bearish case. The chart also shows that the market is trading below parallel trend line support.

Monthly chart shows my long term EW count. So long as the weekly trend remains down, this is the scenario I expect to see unfold over the next two years or so ie. a move below the 2009 low, at least, and likely a move closer to 2000.