Monday, 17 November 2014

ASX 200 beginning next leg lower of 60%+ decline toward 2500?

4 hour chart suggests that the ASX 200 is beginning another leg lower.

Weekly chart trend line break suggests that the up trend from mid 2012 is finished, and the move below the moving averages suggests that a new down trend may be beginning.

Monthly chart illustrates my favoured Elliott Wave count for the ASX 200. Not favoured in the sense of "I would like this to happen", but in the sense of "best fit for EW rules and guidelines". I am a bull at heart, love nothing better than buying and holding the strongest stocks in a bull market, but the pattern suggests that we need a little bit of debt deflation before it's time be buyin' again.

Hang Seng making important secondary peak?

Has the Hang Seng today made an important secondary peak?

Daily chart shows the trend lines I am watching on the futures. Today the market completed a bearish false upside break from both illustrated trend channels. A break lower from both channels would open the door for huge downside potential in this market.

How huge? Weekly chart shows the most likely Elliott Wave count and the implied outcome for coming months. A 60%+ decline to at least below the lows of 2008 & 2009.