Wednesday, 22 October 2014

ASX 200 testing resistance at recent lows

Daily chart shows ASX 200 testing resistance at recent lows. The market has rallied a Fibo 50% of the recent decline. 61.8% would be my maximum expectation, if the larger trend has turned down, so 5460 or so.

Weekly supports the view that the larger trend could be turning lower. Could. Those nearby MA's should cap any rally, so again 5460ish is the max. There's not much wriggle room. Let's see.

German DAX testing giant Head and Shoulder top neckline from below, crucial action here

The DAX is testing its Head and Shoulders top neckline from below. Crucial action here I think, with implications for equities worldwide. Has the Head and Shoulders top decisively turned the DAX's trend to down? Will we see a turn lower from the neckline? Or a move higher through the neckline, invalidating the pattern and allowing further rally?

Gold showing short term up trend within larger down trend

4 hour chart shows Gold's short term up trend.

Daily chart suggests that the next higher degree of trend remains down.

Weekly chart shows a symmetrical triangle suggesting a measured target of below 1100.

Monthly chart shows that Gold recently broke the trend line defining its bull market. By that measure, the bull market is finished.

Silver trending lower, toward 13.00

Daily chart shows Silver's recent strong down trend. There is no evidence that any lasting low has been made.

Weekly chart trend channel suggests a target of near 13.00 in coming months.

AUD/USD pausing within down trend, new lows likely toward 0.84

Daily chart shows AUD/USD pausing within its down trend.

Weekly chart down trend channel suggests a target of around 0.84 in coming weeks or months.

AUD/JPY testing key long term trend line support

Weekly chart shows AUD/JPY testing key long term trend line support

EUR/USD breaking lower again?

4 hour chart shows EUR/USD breaking lower again, but will the break have legs?

As you'd no doubt be aware, the break is aligned with the larger trend (ie. down!) as illustrated on the daily chart.

Zooming waaay out, the EUR/USD appears to be working its way toward a test of the long term support line illustrated below. A break lower would have hugely bearish implications. Should be an interesting few months ahead for this market.

S&P 500 reaching out to test down trend line drawn from September peak

Wow, quite some rally. Chart shows that the futures are up five points from the close of the US session.