Tuesday, 7 October 2014

NASDAQ 100 turns lower from short term down trend line

Hourly chart shows the NASDAQ 100 futures are down from Monday's US cash market close of 4016, having turned lower from the down trend line drawn from September's peak.

Zooming out now to the daily chart, the bearishly crossed moving averages support the view that a new down trend has begun. Needless to say, in recent years few down trends on the NASDAQ have made it out of nappies / infancy.Will this time be different? It could be. If my interpretation of the Dow's long term pattern is correct (see second chart in this post), the odds are higher that this new NASDAQ decline will extend.

Zooming out again now to the weekly chart, shows the market turning lower from the top of its QE 3 trend channel.

AUD/USD bearish sentiment and 5 waves up suggest short term bottom is in

Sentiment is black bearish on the AUD/USD. Even the mainstream media is running stories predicting how much lower it will go (80c says Fairfax / Canberra Times). You know what they say, when everyone is bearish, there's nobody left to sell, and the next market action will be to buy.

15 minute chart shows five waves up from last Friday's low, suggesting that the short term trend has turned up. What do I mean by short term? Any rally should last several days, probably several weeks, but not likely months.

Daily chart shows that Friday's low tested the January low. The trend at this time frame is clearly down, but a relief rally off that January low would not surprise.

Weekly chart trend channel suggests the AUD/USD may eventually head below 0.85.