Saturday, 4 October 2014

S&P 500 closed the week testing the down trend line drawn from the September peak

Hourly chart shows that the S&P 500 closed the week testing the down trend line drawn from the September peak. That trend line test suggests to me that Monday's trade will be hugely important to the direction this market takes in coming days and weeks.

Zooming out to the daily chart, I've shown the so called QE 3 trend line on a linear/arithmetic scale chart, which I also illustrated in my previous S&P post, albeit on a weekly chart. This chart shows the market rallying from trend line support.

Next I've shown the same trend line on a log scale chart, which tells a different story, with the market below its up trend line. The moving averages support the story told by this chart ie. a new down trend is in its infancy. A rally to 1990 would be enough to end the down trend, but below that level, the indicators favour the downside.

For what it's worth, next I've shown my preferred S&P daily chart trend lines, this time on a log scale chart. This one shows the market closing on the upper line, perhaps kissing it goodbye? So which trend line tells the true story? Take your pick. Nobody knows, Charts don't predict the future. But they are a great tool for managing risk, and telling stories.

For completeness I'll zoom out to a long term view of US stocks, this time the Dow, which shows a giant bearish megaphone pattern. If the megaphone is the correct interpretation of market behaviour, it will result in a decline to below the 2009 low. But wait, aren't we seeing an upside break from the megaphone? Not in my view, as the internals of the market (volume and breadth) are weak, making it more likely that we are seeing a throw over / false break..