Thursday, 21 August 2014

ASX 200 hits fresh highs for 2014, testing long term trend line resistance AGAIN

Weekly chart shows the ASX 200 hitting fresh highs for 2014, once again testing long term trend line resistance. On Monday I showed monthly, weekly, and daily chart Elliott Wave counts to argue that the July high was likely the peak of the rally from 2009's low. Plainly July was not the peak, but the current test of trend line resistance, plus the monthly and weekly counts, all argue that the rally is running on fumes.

S&P 500 new highs ahead? Targeting 2000 initially?

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 approaching fresh highs. New highs look to be a given at this point. Whether or not they eventuate, the illustrated Elliott Wave count suggests that the current rally will be the final leg higher from the April low. The bigger picture count illustrated in previous posts suggests that this final fifth wave will complete the entire rally from the 2009 low. An initial target for new highs would be round number resistance at 2000, which coincides with dual trend line resistance. Small upside potential relative to the large downside potential.

Gold heading for test of key up trend line, larger trend down

Daily chart suggests Gold appears to be headed for a test of potential support at the illustrated up trend line.

Weekly chart shows that the larger trend is down, with much nearby overhead resistance pressuring the market lower. The down trend favours (much) lower prices ahead, but while the nearby up trend line holds, a rally toward and beyond the July high can't be ruled out.

Silver range bound within long term down trend, target below 14.00 in coming months

Weekly chart shows Silver trending lower, targeting the lower trend channel line, below 14.00.

AUD/USD testing dual trend channel support, longer term trend and bias is down

Daily chart shows AUD/USD testing dual trend channel support. I would give the benefit of the doubt to the near term bearish case while this week's high holds.

Weekly chart shows that the longer term trend and bias is down.

EUR/USD trending lower after tests of two long term trend lines

Daily chart shows EUR/USD trending lower.

Weekly chart shows that the recent decline follows tests of two long term trend lines.

GBP/USD trending lower after test of multi year support/resistance

Daily chart shows GBP/USD trending lower.

Weekly chart shows the recent decline follows a test of a key multi year support turned resistance level. The swiftness of the recent decline hints that it is likely the beginning of something big, though of course there will counter trend moves along the way.