Friday, 8 August 2014

ASX 200 beginning a 50%+ decline toward 2500

US stocks have likely topped, and so too has the ASX 200. Monthly charts shows my big picture Elliott Wave count for the ASX 200. The most common projection is for wave C to equal wave A in length, which would take the ASX 200 toward 2500 in the next year or two. Anyone want to see weekly chart and daily chart EW counts for this market?

S&P 500 breaks lower through big trend line support, big picture Dow pattern tips 60%+ decline ahead

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 declining through (another) trend line support.

Daily chart of Dow next.

Now zooming out to a long term monthly chart of the Dow, which has completed a false break above the upper trend line. This signals the peak of the illustrated bearish megaphone pattern and indicates that a decline to below the 2009 low is beginning. That suggests a greater than 60% decline on the Dow over the next year or two.

AUD/USD long term trend channel suggests decline toward 0.85 in coming months

Weekly chart. Bottom of trend channel is around 0.85.

Gold beginning rally toward trend line resistance cluster at 1330-1360

Daily chart shows Gold rallying through trend line resistance, and perhaps beginning a new up trend.

Weekly chart shows a cluster of trend line resistance around 1330 to 1360. The trend at this time frame is down, needless to say, which argues in favour of lower prices in coming months, unless that overhead resistance is beaten.