Wednesday, 23 July 2014

S&P 500 potentially embarking on final wave higher of entire rally from 2009 low, targeting 1998 or 2028

The S&P 500 is potentially embarking on a final 5th wave higher, to complete the entire rally from the 2009 low. To argue that point, in this post I have illustrated my Elliott Wave counts starting from the big picture, then repeatedly zoomed in to conclude with a short term chart of the market's current rally. All charts include all sessions trade through to the current European session.

First chart shows that since the year 2000 the S&P 500 has been forming a corrective pattern. Wave B is almost complete, and will be followed by wave C to (much) lower levels, certainly below the 2009 low.

Second chart chart zooms in on wave B from the first chart, to count the entire rally from the 2009 low, with the market approaching the end of the illustrated corrective pattern.

Third chart zooms in on wave 5 of the second chart, to show that the structure of the rally from the June 2013 low is nearing completion. I believe the pattern must be counted as an ending diagonal, due to the corrective action in each of the waves 1-2-3-4-5. It is an unusual ending diagonal as wave 4 does not overlap the top of wave 1, but although rare such a thing is not unheard of.

Fourth and final chart zooms in on wave c of the third chart, to count the rally from the April low, which is beginning its 5th wave higher. Importantly, the message of the preceding three charts is that this 5th wave will potentially be the final wave of the entire rally from the 2009 low. Common Fibonacci extension targets for the 5th wave in this rally are 1998 and 2028.

Many thanks to a reader for asking me about my S&P EW count. Whenever I look at a chart, always the first thing I "see" is the EW count, but I rarely label counts on my charts or share my counts on this site, mostly coz it's hard work, but also to avoid confusing casual chart watchers. I've enjoyed double checking my count tonight.