Thursday, 10 July 2014

Gold in short term up trend but bulls should beware larger degree down trend, 1360 the next hurdle

Daily chart illustrates Gold's short term up trend, which likely has further to run, now that the April high has been beaten.


Weekly chart suggests that larger degree trend line resistance will be tested around 1360. Until the nearby trend line is beaten, the trend at this timeframe is down. If that upside break occurs, Gold could then challenge the March high and then potentially the late 2013 high. Gold would have to beat the upper trend line to signal the end of its current bear market and the chance of a new long term bull market. One step at a time. 1360 is the next hurdle.



Silver in strong short term up trend but bulls should beware its long term down trend

Daily chart illustrates Silver's strong short term up trend, which likely has further to run, perhaps to at least the February high.


Zooming out illustrates that the current rally is an upwards correction in an as yet unchallenged long term down trend. Maybe the current rally is the beginning of a move that will end the long term down trend, but for that to be the case, Silver must first rally out of the down trend channel. For a new long term up trend to emerge, Silver must beat the late 2013 peak, and then the lows of 2011 and 2012. Currently I see no evidence to persuade me to stand aside from my long standing medium term target of below $15, most recently illustrated in this post from June.


Dow futures testing lower trend line of big bearish wedge in European trade

Daily chart shows the Dow futures testing the lower trend line of a big bearish wedge in European session trade. A break lower would be a bearish edge.


Zooming waaay out to a long term monthly chart shows that any short term top has the potential to become a huge top. A move below the June low would complete a false upside break from an enormous bearish megaphone pattern, and would signal a possible decline to well below the 2009 low.


AUD/USD rebounds lower from retest of recent up trend line


EUR/USD rebounds lower from retest of recent up trend line