Tuesday, 8 July 2014

ASX 200 rallies back toward long term trend line resistance

Weekly chart shows the ASX rallying back toward long term trend line resistance. Chart includes all sessions trade through to the current European session.

Daily chart is range bound and choppy. Yuck. Included for completeness. Which way will the range break? I'm too busy playing other markets to care much. But if you want some clues as to which way the Aussie market will head next, in the absence of a clear chart pattern on the ASX 200 itself, you'd be best watching those correlated markets which are showing clearer patterns.

Dow turns lower from upper trend line of 5 month old bearish wedge

Daily chart illustrates the Dow turning lower from the upper trend line of a bearish wedge. A break of the lower line would be a bearish edge. Chart includes all sessions trade through to the current European session.

Monthly chart shows that the Dow has formed a huge bearish megaphone pattern. A move below the June low would complete a false upside break.

So, two bearish set ups, but as yet no signal to pull the trigger at these timeframes. Patience.

Nikkei turning lower from 23 year old down trend line?

Monthly chart begs the question, is the Nikkei turning lower from the illustrated 23 year old down trend line? And kicking off the next leg lower of its multi-decade bear market?

Daily chart says, maybe, but let watch for a bit more confirmation.

EUR/USD breaking lower, turning down from trend line drawn from 2008 and 2011 peaks

Daily chart shows the EUR/USD breaking lower.

Weekly chart suggests there is wind at the back of the daily chart break, in the form of a higher degree turn lower, from the trend line drawn from the 2008 and 2011 peaks. 1.35 is key support, below that would add a of break trend line support to the other bearish indicators.

AUD/USD is forming new down trend unless cluster of resistance around 94.40 is beaten

Daily chart shows the AUD/USD recently broke through multiple trend line supports, which now become potential resistance. The nearby lines cluster around 94.30 to 94.50. Unless the market rallies through that zone a new down trend could be forming.

Hourly chart shows that 94.40, in the centre of the above cited resistance zone, is more or less the Fibo 61.8% retracement of the recent sharp decline from the early July peak. A rally of that magnitude is within the normal parameters of a correction, in this case an upwards correction against a potential new down trend.