Sunday, 29 June 2014

Have US stocks topped? Dow big picture megaphone plus five waves down on hourly chart hints Yes.

Have US stocks topped? I think the Dow could well have done, in which case the broader market has either peaked or is close.

Let's start with the big picture on the Dow, a long term monthly chart, which shows a clear bearish megaphone pattern. The market is currently perched atop the upper trend line. Setting up for a false upside break and a peak for the megaphone? Once complete the megaphone sets up an eventual move to below the 2009 low. 

Next chart zooms in to more clearly show recent market action relative to that upper trend line. The mid-June low is absolutely key. Below that and the market has completed a false upside break, one of the most effective bearish edges.

Next chart zooms in closer again to show the bearish wedge formed since the low in early February. The pattern could already have peaked though I'd be more confident that the top was in if the market showed a break through the lower trend line, or a false break through the upper line.

Next chart zooms in to the hourly chart, which shows five waves down, indicating that at least for the one larger degree of trend, the market's trend is now down. Early last week I posted a Dow five minute chart, also showing five waves down, and pondered "When the market peaks it will subsequently decline in five waves. There are clearly five waves down from today's high, so the top could be in..... sometimes, from little things, big things grow. Markets are fractal in nature. Given the precarious big picture position, any short term decline has an increased chance of growing in to an extended decline.".... So, now we have a larger degree five waves down, the call for a top is more confident. Pending that break of the mid June low, I reckon. If that happens, keep an eye out for five waves down on the daily chart, then the weekly... all the way down to below the 2009 low.

All charts include after hours/all sessions trade.