Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Gold and Silver daily charts - both declining through key supports

Gold, possibly headed toward a test of the June low.


EUR/USD declining toward another test of key trend line support

AUD/USD hourly chart - false break above wedge / ending diagonal.

The AUD/USD's hourly chart "flopping" (see post from earlier today) has already developed in to something interesting. It is now showing a false break above the illustrated wedge / ending diagonal, indicating possible trend reversal... by that I mean trend reversal on the hourly chart, from down to up. Given that the larger degree trends (daily and weekly) are already down, this is an indication that the next leg lower is beginning..... so long as today's high holds. Confidence in this view would rise on a move below 94.80

GBP/USD weekly, daily, hourly charts all at key trend line junctures - waterfall decline ahead?

Looks to me like there's a chance of a big decline directly ahead. A chance. Today's low is key, a decline through that would open up a test of last week's low, and below that we'd have a new down trend.




Gold daily chart - below 1270, once again testing key support

Repeating my words from the weekend: What's next? A move below Friday's low would make very likely a test of the June low. On the other hand, a rally through the nearby overhead down trend line would make possible a rally to test the August high, though before a rally could reach that level, 1350 is significant resistance.

AUD/USD flops around, big picture decline to low 80s still likely

Flops around is an entirely appropriate technical term for the AUD/USD's recent behaviour, a point illustrated by the hourly chart for the market since its September high. Showing a slight bearish wedgey shape but mostly looking sloppy.

Next chart zooms way out to a longish term weekly chart, to illustrate this post's main point, namely that the AUD/USD is likely in the early stages of a long term decline. The break lower from the triangle targets a move to the low 80s, a view that I will give the benefit of the doubt to unless the market can decisively beat the upper end of the illustrated resistance/support zone... that'd be 97ish.

Daily chart next, shows that the market has only rallied a Fibo 38.2% of the decline from 2013's highs. A normal range for a corrective move (in this case an upwards corrective move) would be 38.2% to 61.8%. Interesting to note that the 50% Fibo level coincides with the upper range of weekly resistance, around 97 cents. So if the AUD/USD can beat the September high, that 50% Fibo is the next target. A rally above that 97ish zone would have me beginning to question my bearish view of the big picture. Til then, I'm short from waaaay above parity, and sitting tight. Hope while you're ahead being the most important trading rule of all, bar none.

ASX 200 weekly chart - rallying toward another test of parallel trend line resistance?

Is the ASX 200 rallying toward another test of parallel trend line resistance? Or is it still peeling away lower from the previous test? In any case, upside potential looks limited, especially given that the same can be said of US stocks.

S&P 500 headed for another touch of trend line drawn from 2010, 2011 & 2013 highs?

Upside potential appears limited, a view supported by the long term chart of the Dow I posted on the weekend. The NASDAQ 100 is also in an interesting place.

Nikkei forming multi month triangle on decline from multi decade down trend line

Daily chart shows triangle.

Monthly chart shows decline from latest test of multi decade down trend line.

NASDAQ 100 < 1% away from testing Fibo 61.8% of decline from 2000 to 2002

GBP/USD daily chart - lower through multiple trend lines