Wednesday, 28 August 2013

ASX 200 Head and Shoulders top nearing completion?

The 4 hour chart below suggests that a possible Head and Shoulders top is nearing completion. But don't count chickens before they're hatched. And if they hatch, don't assume they'll have long and fruitful lives. Same for new trends. The neckline is currently at 5030. Chart includes after hours trade.

Zooming out to the long term weekly chart shows support just below 5000, more of a zone than a level. That said, a move below the illustrated support would well and truly break the neckline on the 4 hour chart. 


S&P 500 nearing test of key trend line drawn from late 2012 low

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 nearing a test of key trend line drawn from the late 2012 low.

Zooming out now to a long term monthly chart. Unless 1785 or so is beaten, I am of the view that the S&P remains in a giant trading range, and will eventually be drawn back down toward the 2002 and 2009 lows. Why 1785? It's the level that the S&P would have to trade to beat the 2007 high by the same percentage as it beat the 2002 low at the 2009 low. A monthly close below 1550 would indicate that a top is likely in.

AUD/USD break from multi year triangle targets 0.82, currently testing trend channel support

Weekly chart. The AUD/USD's break from the illustrated multi year triangle targets 0.82, if the current test of trend channel support breaks to the downside.

Gold's 14 year old bull market still alive, but nearing overhead resistance

Monthly chart first. Gold's recovery to back inside the trend channel indicates that the fourteen year old bull market remains alive, though the market's position below the moving average has me questioning its health.

Weekly chart shows Gold nearing overhead trend channel resistance, more of a zone than a level given all the long tails in 2011 and 2012. If Gold beats the trend line, further resistance will be found at the significant lows of 2011 through early 2013, between 1520 and 1600. I am not saying that Gold won't beat these levels, but that it must beat those levels if I am to turn long term bullish.

Silver nearing resistance at the lows of 2011 and 2012

Weekly chart shows Silver nearing resistance surrounding the lows of 2011 and 2012. Unless/until that resistance zone is beaten, the measured target from the descending triangle breakout will remain in play (1360ish).