Sunday, 18 August 2013

ASX 200 setting up for completion of bearish wedge?

Daily chart includes trade through to last week's after hours close, and shows the ASX 200 approaching a test of trend line support. A break would complete a bearish wedge and target a test of the June low around 4600.

Zooming out to the weekly chart shows 5000 to be a key support / resistance level. Importantly, completion of the above wedge would favour the market dropping below 5000 again, which would then act as resistance.

S&P 500 daily, weekly and monthly charts

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 approaching a test of trend channel support.

Zooming out to the weekly chart shows that the market has once again turned down from the illustrated trend line.

Zooming out further now to the monthly chart. Until 1785 or so is beaten, I am of the view that the S&P remains in a giant trading range, and will eventually be drawn back down toward the 2002 and 2009 lows. Why 1785? It's the level that the S&P would have to trade to beat the 2007 high by the same percentage as it beat the 2002 low at the 2009 low

Nikkei testing key short term trend line support, against bearish big picture

The 4 hour chart shows the Nikkei testing key short term trend line support.

Daily chart shows the market trending lower so long as last week's high holds, and especially if last week's low breaks.

Zooming out to a long term monthly chart shows the Nikkei turning lower from trend line resistance, providing a bearish tidal influence to the action at shorter time frames.