Monday, 15 July 2013

ASX 200 testing resistance around 2009, 2010, and 2011 highs

Weekly chart including after hours trade. A close above 5000 would argue against being bearish this market, but for mine only a move above the May high would be bullish, at this time frame.

S&P 500 embarking on new up trend, toward 1800?

Daily chart shows that the S&P futures are steady-ish in Asian trade compared to last week's cash market close of 1680. The bullish moving average cross indicates that the S&P is embarking on a new up trend.

Weekly chart illustrates a bearish megaphone top. Is the S&P now beginning a run toward a test of the upper trend line, around 1800?

Monthly chart supports the case that 1800 is likely in a key resistance zone. 1800 lies just beyond the illustrated resistance line at 1785, which is the level that the S&P would beat the 2007 high by the same percentage as it beat the 2002 low at the 2009 low. Until 1785-1800 or so is beaten, I am of the view that the S&P remains in a giant trading range, and will eventually be drawn back down toward the 2002 and 2009 lows.

Nikkei testing long term resistance, long term down trend lines nearby

Monthly chart

Gold must rally hard from June's low if its great bull market is still alive

Monthly chart shows the trend channel that I believe best captures Gold's great bull market. If that bull market is still alive, not dead and buried as hinted by last month's trend line break, then Gold must rally strongly now to show a false break. Anything less than a strong rally will favour the bearish case.

Weekly chart illustrates overhead trend channel resistance around 1400.

Daily chart. The 40 day moving average has acted as resistance since last October's high.

Silver exhaustion moves below two trend channels hint at consolidation or better now

Weekly chart shows an exhaustion move below the illustrated trend channel, suggesting that a period of consolidation or better (ie. rally) has begun. Unless 2600 is beaten I favour an eventual move to 1360ish, a measured target offered by the blue descending triangle. Every great bear market features great rallies.

Daily shows another exhaustion move below a different trend channel. So despite my big picture bearish view, to my eye the charts allow for prolonged consolidation or even sizable rally in coming months. I am not ruling out that such a rally could morph the bigger picture in to something more bullish, but let's wait for the evidence.

AUD/USD in strong down trend, only above 0.97 would argue against lower levels ahead

Weekly chart shows the AUD/USD in a young down trend (young at this time frame). Only a move above the upper resistance level (around 0.97) would negate the strong likelihood of lower levels in coming months.

Daily chart.

EUR/USD weekly bullish engulfing candle casts doubt on big Head and Shoulders top

Weekly chart shows last week's bullish engulfing candle.

Daily chart shows the big Head and Shoulders top that I have been tracking for some time. Big question mark over this now, certainly over the chances of a neckline break anytime soon. Markets trend little of the time, and spend most of their time marking out choppy corrective patterns and trading ranges.

GBP/USD posing lots of questions

When in doubt, find another market or time frame to trade. Coz even without doubts, you'll have plenty of losers, why make life hard for yourself.

Weekly chart poses the question, break lower from triangle or still trading in a range?

Daily chart moving averages indicate a down trend but did we see a double bottom at last week's low?