Tuesday, 9 July 2013

ASX 200 once again testing resistance zone around the 2009, 2010, and 2011 highs

Weekly chart includes after hours trade. Failing a rally above 5000, this market has returned to a multi year trading range and an initial move toward 4500 is likely, with lower levels thereafter. Apologies for not zooming in further, but the daily chart is a mess, and there are many easier markets to trade at that time frame. Traders are free to choose which sandpits they play in, though many seem to get obsessed with a few pet markets. I'll happily trade anything that is showing a good trend or pattern.

S&P 500 upwards break from trend channel begs the question, is a huge megaphone top still forming?

Daily chart shows the S&P's recent upwards break.

Weekly chart illustrates a possible megaphone top. Continued rally to above the May high would indicate the market is reaching for a test of the upper trend line. That said, the top for the megaphone could already be in place.

Monthly chart shows the market sitting just above the 2007 high. A sustained move below that high would return the S&P to a multi decade trading range, opening the possibility of the market declining toward the 2009 low in coming years.

Nikkei pushing towards test of huge long term resistance around 14560?

Long term monthly chart shows the Nikkei in a down trend and getting close to again testing a big multi decade resistance zone around 14560.

AUD/USD continues to trend lower, break lower from multi year triangle targets 0.82

Daily chart shows the AUD/USD continuing to move lower in a down trend channel.

Zooming out to the weekly chart shows the recent break lower from a multi year triangle, which indicates a measured target around 0.82. Only a rally above the illustrated overhead resistance zone would reduce the odds of this market moving lower in coming months.

EUR/USD testing neckline of H & S top, a break would target 1.18

Daily chart shows the EUR/USD testing the neckline of the illustrated Head and Shoulders top. A break would offer a measured target of around 1.18. Only a sustained rally above the 18 day moving average would remove the pressure for an imminent break of the neckline.

Weekly chart shows the EUR/USD is in a big picture down trend, and has just moved lower through the key 40 week moving average, so if the daily chart neckline breaks the measured target of 1.18 may prove conservative.

GBP/USD likely in early stages of a big move lower toward 1.30

First up I've zoomed out further than I usually do in posts for this market and shown the monthly chart. Trend has recently turned down and momentum has recently flipped to negative. I trade the daily and hourly charts, catching the waves of price movement on those, but it pays to keep an eye on the tide, which in this case is clearly pulling the GBP/USD lower.

Weekly chart illustrates a break lower from a multi year triangle, offering a measured target of around 1.30.

Daily chart shows the GBP/USD stuck between support and resistance, following a recent break lower from a trend channel. The big picture suggests that support will be tested again and that a break would have legs. At this stage, only a sustained move above the 18 day moving average would negate the near term bearish case. For what it's worth, my system favours adding shorts on any turn lower from near the 18.